Amidst the conflict between Israel and Hamas, recent analysis by Forward Keys indicates a significant downturn in flight bookings to destinations across the Middle East. The impact extends globally, with international bookings experiencing a decline following the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel.
Forward Keys Vice President of Insight, Oliver Ponti, characterised the ongoing conflict as a “catastrophic, heartbreaking human tragedy,” influencing not only travel to the region but also denting consumer confidence in global travel. Prior to October 6, global air travel for the last quarter of the year was anticipated to reach 95% of 2019 levels. However, as of October 27, this outlook has fallen by 7 percentage points to 88%.
Unsurprisingly, the analysis highlights a substantial decrease in travel to Israel. Bookings to the country were down 23% in the three weeks preceding October 7 compared to 2019, and this figure plummeted to a staggering 178% decline in the subsequent three weeks, reflecting cancellations that deplete existing bookings.
Other Middle Eastern countries also experienced sharp declines in incoming bookings during the conflict. Lebanon, where Hezbollah engaged in rocket fire with Israel, saw a 45-percentage-point drop, while Jordan and Egypt, both bordering Israel, experienced declines of 54 and 35 percentage points, respectively.
Saudi Arabia, initially witnessing a 75% increase in incoming bookings in the three weeks before October 7, faced a stark reversal with a 67-percentage-point decline in the following three weeks compared to the 2019 baseline.
Examining the overall impact using the 2019 baseline, Forward Keys found a 26-percentage-point decline in bookings to the Middle East during the specified time frame.
Beyond the Middle East, outbound bookings from other regions also declined, albeit at smaller rates. The Americas saw the most significant dip, with a 10-point decline in outbound bookings relative to the 2019 baseline.
Globally, international bookings trailed by 15% during the three weeks before October 7, increasing to 20% in the subsequent three weeks, according to Forward Keys’ analysis.
